In this exclusive clip from his keynote at our Microsoft Marketplace event, Jay McBain, Chief Analyst at Canalys, explains how the $45B marketplace economy is rewiring partnerships, racing to $85B.

5 insights to shape your strategy:

AI Demands New Pricing Models— Only Marketplaces Can Handle Them

"Agentic AI is starting to look like micro consumption, a dollar or $2 per thing... The only way it's going to work is through marketplaces... because you're selling outcomes. You're not selling to a particular person," McBain explained.

Traditional sales processes can't handle dollar-per-outcome models for partners, but marketplaces can.

Convergence of Opportunities: 59% + 86% Growth

AI partner opportunities are growing at 59%, while marketplaces are growing at 86%—these are the "2 fastest growing parts of our industry," Jay explained. The convergence is creating unique partner leverage.

Partner Explosion is Real

"One company happens to grow 91% on a marketplace. They're growing their partners 3,548% in terms of distribution, in terms of these private offers, in terms of partners being included in the deals," McBain noted.

This isn't just marketplace expansion—it's channel transformation at unprecedented scale.

The math is compelling: "For every dollar of Microsoft there's $8.45 as a partner I can go chase. If I'm an ISV, it's over $10."

Partners Are Evolving Into Full-Stack Orchestrators

"So a partner isn't a partner anymore. It might be a VAR from the past, that's maybe how you have it categorized. But they're doing consulting. They look like a consultant. They look like a system integrator. They look like a managed service provider. And 44% of them are developing software."

This evolution means partners aren't just reselling—they're surrounding customers "at all stages before, during and after the transaction" and capturing 200-300% of deal value through services. For ISVs, this creates opportunities to orchestrate these new capabilities rather than compete with them.

In the "7 layer stack that agentic AI is going to be delivered," partners have a major role to play.

But it's an integrated role and "how it all plays is going to be as a team sport," Jay stresses.

Jay McBain's Marketplace Prediction

"So all of the channel partner, entire ecosystem that's been built around us for 40 years,

I believe, and my prediction is within 5 years actually lands at the marketplace, where the customer is going to be delivered in terms of their outcomes and their journey," Jay concludes.

What's your strategy to capture this AI-marketplace convergence?