But this isn't even the full story.

If we take into account all Microsoft Cloud commits (not just Azure, which we conservatively put at ~50% of MSFT Cloud total), the collective client backlog across hyperscalers already was $504Bn last quarter!

Let's break it down.

AWS, Azure and Google Cloud commits to reach $500Bn by 2026

Cloud commit backlog is growing alongside the revenue that hyperscalers recognize. These are signed customer obligations that can also be used to buy 3rd party SaaS on cloud marketplaces.

Commits growth is lumpy (see graph), but the trend is clear - big 3 commits are growing at low 20% YoY ($65-70Bn).

Last 12 month growth across big 3:

Q2’23: $304.6Bn

Q2’24: $369.9Bn

Assuming this holds, customer commitments will reach $500Bn by early 2026, or in ~18 months (the graph shows model/timeline variations).

If we add Microsoft's full Cloud commits ($269Bn), including all MSFT product suite, not just Microsoft Azure, the last quarter commit across the big 3 is already $504.4Bn.

What's behind this massive number?

Gen AI has triggered a new wave of cloud migration, modernization, and data operations, as enterprises race to leverage AI potential.

Hyperscalers lead this AI revolution with their partnerships and deep investments in foundation models, AI infrastructure, and tools.

$500 Bn in commits will create a quantum leap for marketplaces

Using cloud marketplaces is already normalized across enterprises. Even top companies like Salesforce claim that their top 3 out of 10 deals last quarter were through AWS marketplace.

Given that cloud commits will grow ~2X from 2023 to 2026, marketplace transactions will multiply too.

AI meet marketplaces

Marketplaces are already a top 3 GTM channel for 47% of software companies.

Verticalized AI apps and industry-specific solutions will be both powered by AI/ML through hyperscalers and distributed to enterprises via their marketplaces.

Hyperscaler co-sell will remain essential to winning major SaaS and AI deals.

Partners, from SIs to services, are adjusting to this (sometimes uncomfortable but critical) trend, where marketplaces are essential to reach customers/budgets.

Marketplaces will become the default purchasing model for complex projects, with 50% of their revenue to be driven by partners (Canalys).

For Alliance leaders this data should be a wake-up call

Cloud commits represent future spending that's already locked in.

If you're not tapping into these massive pools via marketplace GTM, you're leaving money on the table and missing the future growth.