AI and marketplaces are already colliding in ways that will reshape GTM.

The Pattern of Underestimation

Coatue's latest EMW25 conference revealed an uncanny parallel: analyst skepticism about AI today mirrors identical commentary from 2013-2015 about cloud.

Analysts warned of "deteriorating margins" and questioned massive cloud bets by Amazon and Microsoft a decade ago. Yet cloud skepticism gave way to the "Golden Age" of SaaS, creating a $500B market.

As its CEO Philippe Laffont noted, investors often "misread the shape of these curves" during transformational cycles.

Sound familiar? We see identical commentary from 2024-2025, this time aimed at AI investments. But look at their analysis - they expect to turn into positive EBIT for Microsoft in just 3 years.

This pattern of underestimation isn't just about infrastructure—it happened with GTM models too.

Cloud Marketplaces faced the same dismissal

Initially, many dismissed AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud marketplaces as niche channels, mere bolt-ons to the "real" business of cloud consumption. "It's just for startups," or "Serious enterprise procurement won't happen there," they said.

Wrong again.

The Marketplace Vindication

After Jay McBain of Canalys projected cloud marketplace explosion from $16B in 2023 to $85B by 2028, insiders now quietly confirm this is directionally on track.

The skeptics missed the gravitational pull of cloud commits, simplified procurement, and creation of a high-velocity, low-friction channel for software delivery.

The AI + Marketplace Convergence

If AI mirrors cloud, and marketplaces can become the dominant GTM force, what happens when you combine them?

Data Gravity Meets AI Gravity

AI models require data access, and hyperscalers are the center of data. AI applications will inevitably be discovered, procured, and deployed right next to the data they need to work with.

AI-Powered Procurement

The future of software buying won't be scrolling through catalogs. It will be AI agents, understanding business problems and suggesting solutions from multiple ISVs listed on marketplaces. Discovery and procurement become intelligent and (partially?) automated.

A New GTM for AI-Native ISVs

An entire generation of AI-native companies is being born on the cloud. For them, the marketplace isn't an alternative GTM motion; it's their primary one, offering immediate access to customers, budgets, and immediate distribution globally.

Multiply this on AI Agent Marketplace —a storefront within larger Cloud Marketplaces where enterprises will discover and deploy specialized AI Agents.

Google Cloud has already moved here, others are following. They will be soon selling thousands ready-to-deploy "digital employees".

For GTM leaders

Are you planning for the AI-Marketplace convergence, or making the same underestimation for the third time?

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