Here’s the simple calculation, built on two recent reports:

• In September, Reuters reported on Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing: 47% of Anthropic’s 2025 revenue, ~$2.16B, went through Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud marketplaces.

• Last week, Reuters and the FT reported numbers shared at Anthropic’s investor meeting: $16.8B in revenue in Q3 2026 alone.

Apply the same 47% share to Q3 this year:

$16.8B × 47% ≈ $7.9B through marketplaces in one quarter

That’s ~$1B every 12 days.

This assumes Anthropic’s marketplace share stayed at its 2025 level.

Is a 47% marketplace share even reasonable?

Three things suggest it is:

• Anthropic’s marketplace share has only gone up: 11% in 2023, 32% in 2024, 47% in 2025.

• On June 29, Claude became generally available in Microsoft Foundry, with usage counting toward Azure commitments. Anthropic added a third cloud route this year.

• Even if the share fell to ~13%, Q3 alone would match Anthropic’s entire 2025 marketplace sales.

From 9 years to 12 days

Last month we published a 54-page report on 16 companies that have publicly crossed $1B in sales through cloud marketplaces. The pace was already speeding up:

• Dynatrace: ~9 years from first listing to $1B

• ServiceNow: ~2.3 years

• Salesforce: $2B in under 18 months

Cloud commits shortened the path from an approved budget to a software purchase.

Anthropic’s 2025 figure, $2.16B in a single year, was already on par with Snowflake’s $2B+ on AWS, the largest single-year number in the group last year.

If the math holds, Anthropic now adds $1B through cloud marketplaces in less than two weeks. AI frontier companies may be the ones setting the pace now.

Why AI fits marketplaces so well

AI is uniquely suited to selling through cloud marketplaces:

• Budget: enterprises buy against cloud commitments they’ve already signed. Claude can be bought against commitments on AWS, Google Cloud and Azure.

• Metering: $3.8B of Anthropic’s 2025 revenue was usage-based, vs. $789M from subscriptions. Pay-per-use spend lands naturally on a monthly cloud bill.

• Reach: in its filing, Anthropic said the clouds’ sales networks speed up “market penetration at a scale we believe would be difficult for any single organization to directly replicate.”

• Cloud handles the invoice collection: AWS and GCP were responsible for collecting 60% of Anthropic’s outstanding customer bills at the end of 2025.

What share of your AI revenue closes through a cloud marketplace today, and is it rising?