But the shape of the growth is what matters.

I rebuilt the Gartner forecast into a 2025 → 2026 view, and three things stand out for alliance leaders.

1️⃣ Services is the most interesting signal: AI adoption is becoming partner-led at scale

AI Services is the 3 biggest absolute growth bucket — adding $149B in 2026 alone.

That’s Gartner highlighting what most operators already feel:

AI success is less about a “feature launch” and more about implementation — integration, governance, security reviews, data readiness, change management, and ongoing optimization.

This is where partners win.

SIs/MSPs aren’t an add-on. They’re the adoption engine that makes AI usable inside real companies.

If you lead alliances, this should inform your partner strategy: your “AI partner stack” is becoming a repeatable delivery motion.

2️⃣ Gartner’s bigger message on SaaS: incumbents have a winning path — if they prove outcomes

There’s a loud narrative that “SaaS is disrupted by AI.” Gartner pushes back:

“Because AI is in the Trough of Disillusionment throughout 2026, it will most often be sold… by their incumbent software provider…”

In plain language: buyers still prefer familiar vendors — but only when ROI is defensible.

My view: both outcomes will likely happen.

• Some legacy software companies will accelerate (distribution, budgets, procurement paths, installed base).

• Others will get disrupted (if they can’t ship real outcomes, or AI collapses differentiation).

The key takeaway: the default outcome isn’t “SaaS dies.” It’s “SaaS gets re-ranked by outcomes.”

3️⃣ Infrastructure is the gravity — turning cloud into the distribution layer for everything else

Infra shows the biggest dollar increase. Gartner calls out providers “building out AI foundations,” with infrastructure adding $401B in 2026.

When infrastructure becomes the largest and fast-expanding pool, the cloud becomes the distribution layer for everything else — software procurement, services delivery, and the operating model around it.

If you’re not aligned to hyperscaler motions, you’re not aligned with the strongest pull.

Fastest % growth (small bases, loud signals):

• AI Data grows ~3x (data readiness is key)

• AI Cybersecurity nearly doubles (governance and risk budgets are catching up fast)

• AI Models also grow quickly, though from a smaller base than infra/software/services.

What this means for marketplaces

Put those signals together and the implication is clear. If the fastest-growing spend pools are infrastructure + software + services, the winners will be the companies that can:

• attach to hyperscaler infrastructure budgets (cloud consumption, committed spend, procurement convenience),

• sell AI software as an expansion of existing buying paths (like marketplaces)

• and package services so adoption doesn’t stall after purchase

PS. Source